Amazon 
Environment 
International 
National The new report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sends out a scathing message: there is no longer any doubt that climate change is underway due to human actions, already having negative effects across the planet. And yet, if measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions are not taken immediately, the situation will only get worse.
This is the sixth work of the IPCC since its creation in 1992, which consists of an extensive review of scientific works published on the subject in recent years. It is also the most incisive report. “There is no longer any room for doubts about the human role in climate change, nor for leniency. Given the serious scenario described by the IPCC, the scenario for the Amazon could be even worse than predicted by the report”, says the senior researcher at IPAM (Institute for Environmental Research in the Amazon), Paulo Moutinho.
The entire globe feels the effects of global warming, 1.1°C more on average compared to temperatures recorded since 1850. In the next 20 years, the temperature is expected to exceed 1.5°C more – bringing even more negative effects to life of people, as more frequent, intense and dangerous temperature extremes.
In Brazil, the temperature can rise between 4ºC and 5ºC in the coming decades. This will have a direct effect on rainfall availability and agribusiness productivity. “The ongoing deforestation in the Amazon further aggravates the negative effects of the climate: globally, on the forest and on the Brazilians who live there”, says the executive director of IPAM, André Guimarães. “To maintain the productive capacity in the field, it is necessary to act now.”
In addition, a warmer, drier environment makes vegetation even more flammable. This weekend, for example, an expedition by IPAM and the Woodwell Climate Research Center observed forest fires in the Cerrado and Pantanal of Mato Grosso, which started accidentally and spread rapidly, affecting rural properties and native vegetation. “The hotter and drier the environment becomes, the greater the risk of any small fire turning into a large fire, producing smoke that has taken thousands of Brazilians to hospitals every year,” explains IPAM director Ane Alencar.
Brazil’s main contribution to worsening climate change is deforestation and forest degradation. In 2019, the country released 2.17 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) into the atmosphere, an increase of 9.6% over the previous year. The land-use change sector accounted for the biggest increase, 23%, and almost half of all Brazilian emissions that year: 44%, or 968 million tCO2e, according to the SEEG (Emissions and Gas Removal Estimates System from Brazil).
It is in this land use sector, however, that Brazil can make a fundamental contribution to the future of the planetary climate. For this, the country needs to reduce deforestation in the Amazon and the Cerrado, recover degraded areas with forests and increase agricultural productivity in large areas that have already been deforested and are underutilized.
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